NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 221802
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    102 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...Gale Warning in the South-Central Caribbean...

    Strong high pressure behind the front will maintain strong NE
    winds over much of the Caribbean through mid week, with gales
    pulsing off Colombia. For additional information, please read
    the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
    HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

    ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico and SW N Atlantic...

    A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf tonight, with gale
    force NW to N winds behind the front in the western Gulf from S
    Texas to Veracruz, mainly W of 93W. As the front moves off the
    Florida coast into the SW N Atlantic, SW gale force winds are
    forecast ahead of the front N of 29N W of 77W with seas 10 to 13
    feet early Thursday morning. For additional information, please
    read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
    HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
    and extends to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
    00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N45W. Scattered moderate
    convection is north of the ITCZ from 00N-04N between 30W-40W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1041 mb surface high over the Mid-Atlantic extends a ridge
    southward over the Southeast into the Gulf of Mexico, leading
    to relatively benign weather and moderate to fresh southeast
    winds across the basin. Broken to overcast low level stratocumulus
    clouds still covers the central Gulf. Mid to upper level ridging
    also covers the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence.

    Fresh to strong SE flow will spread from the NW Gulf across the
    basin today, ahead of a cold front moving off the Texas coast
    tonight. Strong to gale force northerly winds will follow the
    front over the western Gulf on Wed. See Special Features Section
    for more information. Winds and seas diminish across the Gulf Thu
    as the front moves southeast of the region. Looking ahead, SE
    flow will increase again Sat ahead of another front moving off the
    Texas coast Sat night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A cold front extends from the Windward Passage near 19N73W to W
    Jamaica near 18N76W. The front becomes stationary from that point
    to E Honduras near 15N83W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
    the front N of 15N and E of 78W. Scatterometer data indicates
    fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba N of 17N and W of 76W north
    of the stationary front. Only typical isolated trade wind showers
    are noted over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

    The stationary front from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras
    will dissipate today. Strong 1041 mb high pressure north of the
    area behind the front will maintain strong NE winds over much of
    the Caribbean through mid week, with gales pulsing off Colombia.
    Winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the high pressure
    shifts east ahead of another cold front expected to move into the
    northwest Caribbean by late Thu. The second front will stall then
    dissipate from central Cuba to central Honduras by late Fri.
    Farther east, NW swell will move into Atlc waters off the Leeward
    Islands by Wed night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extending from 31N55W to 24N62W to the coast of
    Hispaniola near 23N64W. Scattered showers extend 80 to 180 nm east
    of the front. No significant convection is present south of 26N.

    A cold front will become stationary from north of Puerto Rico to
    near the Windward Passage late today then dissipate through Thu.
    High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front
    will support fresh to strong winds through mid week. Strong
    southerly winds will develop off northeast Florida by Thu ahead
    of another cold front, reaching gale force north of 30N. Winds and
    seas will diminish through late week as the front continues east,
    stalling and weakening from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Sat.
    Looking ahead, a weak disturbance will form along the front Sun in
    the northern Bahamas and move northeast.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MTorres

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