NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 200003
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    703 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2330 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

    A cold front extends across the basin from 25N84W to 25N90W to
    20N96W. Gale-force winds are expected from 22N-24N and west of
    96W, with seas ranging between 9-12 ft. Similar conditions will
    continue across the western Gulf waters through the next 42 hours.
    See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast
    under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

    ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

    Gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight,
    then diminishing below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from
    10 to 14 ft in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast
    under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

    ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

    Large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to produce
    significant wave heights between 12-16 ft over a large area of
    the Atlantic from 16N-31N between 35W-68W. Large surf, dangerous
    rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the
    Atlantic-facing shores of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico,
    Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and the northeast Caribbean
    passages through early Monday. The swells will gradually subside
    by late Mon and early Tue. See information from your local or
    national meteorological service for more specific information on
    beach hazards in your area.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
    to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to 02S43W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either side of the
    monsoon trough and ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See
    the section above for details.

    A cold front extends across the basin from 25N84W to 25N90W to
    20N96W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer
    data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front,
    while moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the
    front.

    The cold front will move quickly SE through the remainder of the
    basin through Mon. Strong north winds will prevail north of the
    front, and gale winds will develop offshore areas south of
    Tampico and Veracruz and continue through Mon night. Winds and
    seas will diminish on Tue as high pressure builds into the Gulf.
    The high will move east Wed, allowing strong S winds to develop
    in the northern Gulf by mid week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Gale-force winds are pulsing over the south-central Caribbean off
    the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell currently
    affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue through early
    Monday. See the section above for details.

    A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the
    basin from 18N63W to 19N69W north of Hispaniola. Scattered showers
    are noted across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola.
    Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds
    over the south central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds
    prevail elsewhere. Low-topped scattered showers are noted across
    the far west Caribbean waters, mainly west of 80W.

    Winds will pulse to gale force along the coast of
    Colombia tonight. Thereafter, the pressure gradient responsible
    for the high winds will slacken, allowing winds to diminish to
    strong levels into mid-week. Elsewhere, high pressure building
    southwestward toward the Caribbean will result in strong
    northeast to east winds over much of the central and eastern
    Caribbean through tonight, before the high moves to the east and
    weakens, diminishing winds across most of the area. Long-period
    N swell is creating very large seas and hazardous marine
    conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic forecast zones.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the swell event over the
    western Atlantic.

    A cold front extends from 31N34W to 22N40W to 18N53W, then stalls
    from that point to 18N63W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity
    of the front. A 1026 mb high is centered near Bermuda and
    extending over the west Atlantic in the wake of the front. In the
    far eastern Atlantic, an upper-level trough is inducing scattered
    showers north of 25N and east of 25W. Strong NE winds cover much
    of Atlantic to the NE of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands as
    well as the Caribbean passages.

    Large seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually
    subside from W to E through Mon. A strong cold front will move
    off the SE U.S. early tonight. The front will reach from near
    Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon evening, then become stationary
    from east of Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Tue and gradually
    weaken through Thu. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this
    cold front and associated low pressure expected to develop Tue and
    Tue night will bring strong to near gale-force northerly winds
    over most of the western waters north N of about 26N Tue through
    Thu, with gale-force winds possible over some of those waters.
    Conditions will diminish over the area Thu night through Fri
    night.

    $$

    ERA