NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 110503

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1203 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0415 UTC.

    A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc waters from 32N64W
    SW to the Windward Passage and then to the SW Caribbean Sea near
    11N79W. Strong high pressure continues to build in W of the front
    across Cuba...the NW Caribbean Sea...and much of Central America
    this evening resulting in near gale to gale force N winds
    generally S of 18N W of the front to 83W off the coast of
    Nicaragua. As the front creeps eastward and eventually begins to
    stall by Monday morning...the remaining boundary will extend from
    the Windward Passage region to the coast of Costa Rica with fresh
    to strong N winds continuing to diminish gradually through mid-
    week. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
    headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to
    05N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
    05N22W to 03N32W to 06N41W. No significant deep convection noted
    on satellite imagery at this time.


    A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a
    1031 mb high centered across northern Mexico near 27N100W. Light
    to gentle N winds are noted W of 90W...and gentle to moderate N
    winds are noted E of 90W. The ridging will build in across the
    northern Gulf through Monday night with generally gentle to
    moderate anticyclonic winds expected across much of the basin. By
    Tuesday...the next weak cold front will emerge off the SE CONUS
    coast introducing a brief period of fresh W-NW winds to the
    northern water Tuesday morning and eastern waters Tuesday
    afternoon into the evening. The front will be quick to clear east
    of the basin with moderate northerly winds prevailing Wednesday
    into Thursday.

    The primary feature across the basin is the cold front extending
    across the western waters generating the near gale to gale force
    northerly winds. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring
    generally S of 18N between 76W-84W...and within 60 nm either side
    of the cold front N of 18N. Much of this convection is supported
    aloft by a divergent upper level pattern on the western periphery
    of an upper level anticyclone anchored over northern Colombia near
    11N75W. East of the anticyclonic circulation...dry northerly flow
    prevails providing overall stability to the central and eastern
    Caribbean this evening. A few isolated showers are noted on
    satellite imagery across the NE Caribbean...but remain quick-
    moving and embedded within gentle to moderate trades. The front
    is forecast to become stationary across the western Caribbean and
    begin to gradually weaken through mid-week.

    Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this evening
    while a cold front remains analyzed across the Windward Passage
    region. Isolated showers and tstms are possible within 60 nm
    either side of the front which is expected to stall overnight into
    Monday and begin a weakening trend through Tuesday night.

    Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over
    the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters supporting the
    Special Features cold front extending from 32N64W to the Windward
    Passage and into the SW Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are
    occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the
    remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of
    a surface ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and portions of
    NE Mexico. Elsewhere...water vapor imagery indicates a cut-off
    middle to upper level low centered near 24N48W that continues to
    slowly retrograde. A surface trough extends from 20N47W to 29N44W
    providing focus for scattered showers and tstms from 19N-28N
    between 39W-49W. The trough is forecast to drift westward across
    the central Atlc through Monday night.

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