NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 071829 RRA

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    105 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.


    A tropical wave extends along 31W-32W from 01N-17N, moving W at
    10 kt. Saharan air and an associated low level wind surge has
    moved well ahead of this wave, and can be seen from 10N to 22N
    across the Atlantic to 55W. Due to this dry air, scattered
    moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-11N
    between 22W-40W mostly due to the monsoon trough.

    A tropical wave extends from 19N57W to 12N60W to 05N61W, moving
    W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is over the
    Windward and Leeward Islands, and Puerto Rico, from 10N-20N
    between 59W-67W.

    A tropical wave is analyzed along 72W from 06N-22N, moving W at
    10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
    wave axis S of 18N


    The monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 08N30W to 06N45W.
    The ITCZ extends from 06N45W to 03N51W. Besides the convection
    mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
    convection is from 02N-08N between 40W-46W.


    A 1019 mb high is centered over the N Bahamas near 26N78W.
    A ridge axis extends W to S Texas. Scattered moderate convection
    is over the NE Gulf of Mexico N of 29N and E of 88W. Isolated
    moderate convection is also over the Florida Peninsula.

    A surface ridge will prevail the entire forecast period with
    the center of high pressure fluctuating between the NW and
    NE basin. This will allow for the continuation of moderate to
    fresh southerly winds across W portions of the basin and
    moderate westerly winds across NE portions.


    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
    moving across the central Caribbean.

    A middle to upper level trough extends from the southern Bahamas
    to Panama, while a large mid-upper level anticyclone is noted E
    of this trough across the majority of the basin. Latest
    scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh across the central
    and eastern Caribbean, except fresh to strong near the N coast
    of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate
    trades prevail over the western Caribbean, except locally fresh
    to strong near the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate
    convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras and Honduras.
    Similar convection is over Panama.

    A weak ridge along 29N across the W Atlantic will strengthen
    across the region late Wed through Sat. Fresh to strong trade
    winds will persist in the south-central Caribbean, increasing
    to near gale force Thu and Fri nights. Expect increasing winds,
    seas and active weather over the Tropical N Atlantic waters
    and E Caribbean today and Wed associated with the tropical wave
    along 60W. These conditions will spread into the central
    Caribbean Wed and Thu. Strong winds will pulse at night in the
    Gulf of Honduras Fri night through the weekend.


    See the Special Features section for information on the tropical
    waves moving across the basin.

    Isolated moderate convection are over the Bahamas and the
    Straits of Florida from 23N-27N between 77W-80W. Similar convection is
    over the W Atlantic from 27N-31N between 60W-69W. A 1019 mb high is
    centered over the N Bahamas near 26N78W. A 1023 mb high is centered over
    the central Atlantic near 30N51W. A 1028 mb high is centered over the
    Azores near 39N29W.

    Over the W Atlantic, a weak ridge along 29N will persist across
    the region late Wed through Sat. Moderate to fresh southerly
    winds will affect most of the area N of 23N Wed through Sat
    night. Low pressure across the SE U.S. will move NE and
    approach the coast of the Carolinas Wed through Thu, dragging
    a trough across the northern Florida offshore waters.