NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 281721
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1630 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Satellite derived wind data this
    morning confirm minimal gale force winds over the NW Gulf behind
    a strong cold front moving across the eastern Gulf today. The
    front currently extends from the central Florida Panhandle to
    near Veracruz, Mexico. Very active convection is along the front,
    and is also occurring within 60-120 nm ahead of it in a squall
    line, where frequent lightning and strong gusty winds prevail.
    Fresh to strong southerly winds will continue ahead of the front
    today as it moves into the Gulf coast of Florida. Winds and seas
    are expected to peak tonight. At this time, W to NW winds of 30-35
    kt and seas in the 10-15 ft range are expected. These dangerous
    marine conditions will begin to gradually diminish from W to E
    late Fri into Sat. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
    issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned along 27W from
    19N southward moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Long term satellite imagery
    animations as well as precipitable water animation suggest that
    some low level moisture has continued moving westward ahead of the
    wave, to along 32W, where a 1011 mb surface low is along the
    monsoon trough near 10.5N32W. However the main wave energy appears
    to be consolidating further to the east along 27W. Very active
    convection continues to the south and east of the wave, where
    satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to convection from 04N
    to 08N between 23W and 30W, and from 04N to 15N between 19W and
    24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm across
    the SW quadrant of the low along 10.5N32W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough exits the Guinea coast near 11N15.5W and
    meanders westward to 09.5N18.5W to 11.5N26W to 1011 mb low pres
    near 10.5N32W to 08N37W. A segment of the ITCZ extends from 05N43W
    to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Numerous moderate to
    strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N between 10W and 19W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02.5N to 06.5N between
    30W and 40W.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A strong cold front extends from the central Florida Panhandle to
    the coast of Mexico near Veracruz, and is racing quickly SE across
    the basin today. Strong tstorms and squalls are occurring along
    and within 120 nm ahead of the front. Gale force W to NW winds
    and large seas to 14 ft are occurring behind the front and N of
    26N, while strong NW to N winds are elsewhere behind it.
    Scatterometer winds from this morning also depicted strong SW
    winds to 30 kt ahead of the front moving into the Florida Big
    Bend, where seas of 8-10 ft prevail. Please see the Special
    Features section for more details. The front is supported by a
    large area of low pressure shifting eastward across the eastern
    United States, producing a strong pressure gradient over the
    northern Gulf. This will support the strong to gale force winds
    across the northern Gulf waters behind the front through Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Generally fair and stable atmospheric conditions prevail across
    all but the SE Caribbean today. Morning scatterometer data showed
    moderate to fresh trade winds across the south central Gulf
    between 65W and 74W, where peak seas were to 8 ft. Scatterometer
    data also showed fresh southerly winds opening up across the NW
    Caribbean and flowing through the Yucatan Channel and into the SE
    Gulf of Mexico, ahead of the cold front. Wind and seas are
    generally more tranquil across the remainder of the Caribbean
    today. Active convection across the SW Caribbean has diminished
    somewhat this morning. Scattered moderate isolated strong
    convection is seen within 90 nm of the NW coast of Colombia, and S
    of 15N to the W of 81W.

    A weak ridge over the northern Caribbean Sea will continue to support
    mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin, with
    locally fresh winds possible in the Gulf of Honduras and off the
    coast of Venezuela. A cold front will enter the basin through the
    Yucatan Channel tonight. This front will move through the NW
    Caribbean into the weekend, before stalling from the Windward
    Passage to northern Nicaragua by Sun. Moderate to fresh NW winds
    and seas to 8 ft can be expected behind the cold front.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front enters the discussion area near 31N60W to 27N66W
    where it becomes stationary to the northern Bahamas near 25N77W.
    Active convection continues along and within 90 nm southeast of
    both of these boundaries. South Florida. Fresh to strong westerly
    winds are occurring behind the front, to the N of 29N and E of
    70W, while fresh SW winds prevail southeast of the front and N of
    24N to 60W. Seas are 6-11 ft in NW swell behind the front and 6-10
    ft ahead of it. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the
    influence of a 1023 mb high pressure located near 30WN27W. This
    system extends a ridge SW across the Greater Antilles. Light and
    variable winds are along the ridge axis while a belt of gentle to
    moderate trades is along the southern periphery of the ridge.

    The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
    Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Ash cloud is
    slowly drifting SW. High volcanic ash concentration remains in
    the vicinity of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should
    monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash
    Advisory issued by Meteo- France, at
    http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

    A aforementioned cold front will move east and weaken N of 27N,
    while the remaining stationary portion will drift northward and
    gradually dissipate through Fri. The next cold front will move
    off the SE U.S. coast tonight, then gradually reach from Bermuda
    to the Windward Passage over the weekend. Strong winds with seas
    in excess of 8 ft are expected to develop on both sides of the
    front this afternoon through Sat night, mainly N of 26N. Moderate
    to large NE swell will dominate the waters W of 65W through the
    weekend.

    $$
    Stripling