NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 270001
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    701 PM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2330 UTC.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...

    A very strong cold front is currently moving across the Gulf of
    Mexico. Currently, the front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
    the central Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data depicts
    strong to gale force winds behind the front, while the stations
    in Tampico and Veracruz are reporting sustained winds of 35 kt
    with gusts to 45 kt. Storm conditions have started offshore
    Veracruz this evening and continue through late tonight. The
    front is forecast to reach from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan
    Peninsula this evening with a large area of gale force winds
    behind it, and seas of 15 to 18 ft over the SW Gulf. The front is
    expected to move SE of the area tonight. High pressure will build
    in the wake of the front across the Gulf waters with winds and
    seas gradually diminishing by Thu.

    Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
    or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
    further details.

    ...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN NORTHERN HONDURAS...

    The strong cold front now moving across the Gulf of Mexico is
    forecast to enter the NW Caribbean tonight. Heavy rainfall will
    likely affect northern Honduras and NE Nicaragua Thursday
    through Saturday in association with the frontal boundary. The
    heavy rain in Honduras could lead to significant flash flooding
    and mudslides. Locally heavy rain is also forecast through
    Thursday in north-central Guatemala and over the southeastern
    portions of the Mexican state of Veracruz and northern Chiapas.
    However, the greatest threat for flooding is over northern
    Honduras, where persistent northerly flow will bring abundant
    moisture. Please monitor the latest forecasts from your local or
    national meteorological service for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
    continues from 04N19W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
    noted within 120 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 25W-45W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Refer to the section above for details on the Storm and Gale
    Warnings in effect for the basin.

    A cold front extends from 30N84W to 24N88W to 18N94W. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front. Surface
    ridging is building in the wake of the front across the basin. To
    the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 28N82W, with a
    trough extending northeast from 31N78W.

    The front will quickly move east-southeast across the remainder
    of the eastern Gulf tonight to southeast of the area by late
    tonight. The storm/gale conditions will gradually diminish
    through Thu night as the high pressure builds across the basin and
    shifts eastward to the NE Gulf by the weekend. Prior to that,
    another cold front will sweep across the NE Gulf Fri night and
    Sat. The high pressure will shift to east of NE Florida by Mon
    afternoon. This will allow for fresh to strong return flow to
    develop over the western Gulf beginning late Sat and spreading to
    the central Gulf by early next week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure north and east of the Caribbean, in combination
    with low pressure in South America, will maintain strong northeast
    to east winds pulsing each night through the weekend off the
    coast of Colombian. The cold front that is currently over the
    eastern Gulf of Mexico, will enter the NW Caribbean tonight. The
    front will become stationary this weekend, extending from
    Hispaniola to Costa Rica. Fresh to strong N winds are expected in
    the wake of the front across the Caribbean during the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low centered over 28N82W
    to 31N77W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the
    trough over the west Atlantic mainly west of 77W. To the east, a
    1024 mb high is centered near 31N57W. A stationary front extends
    from 31N43W to 24N48W to 23N57W. A 1014 mb low has developed south
    of the front near 19N57W, with trough extending from the low to
    13N63W. Scattered showers are noted with the low. A surface trough
    extends from 25N39W to 17N40W with no significant convection
    associated to it.

    Strong SW winds are expected over NE of the Bahamas tonight, in
    advance of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. this
    evening. Strong NW wind are forecast behind the front across the
    west Atlantic on Thu. The front will slow down as it moves E of
    the Turks and Caicos Islands and into Hispaniola into the weekend.
    It is likely that a reinforcing cold front may bring strong NW
    winds to the areas that are to the north of 25N during the
    upcoming weekend.

    $$

    ERA