NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 122322
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    622 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2300 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

    As of 12/2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends over the Gulf from
    The Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to 22N92W to 18N94W. Veracruz
    Mexico recently recorded winds of 30 kt with gusts of 40 kt. The
    12/1545 UTC scatterometer pass showed peak winds of 40-45 kt from
    the north to the east of Tampico. Buoy 42055, located near 22.1N
    93.9W, reported seas of 18 ft at 12/2140 UTC. Gale force winds and
    high seas will continue overnight and into early Wed over the
    southwest Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz as the front
    continues eastward. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued
    by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers
    HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

    West Atlantic Gale Warning...

    A strong cold front extends from 32N79W to near Jacksonville
    Florida as of 12/2100 UTC. The front will extend from 31N76W to
    Vero Beach, FL by late tonight. Gale force N winds are anticipated
    behind the front from late tonight through early Wed, before
    slowly diminishing. Seas will quickly build to near 15 ft by early
    Wed. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
    Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at
    website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
    details.

    East Atlantic Gale Warning...

    A strong pressure gradient between the 1030 mb Azores high at
    36N34W and a surface trough over NW Africa is producing gale-
    force N to NE winds near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone
    Agadir of Meteo France. In the Canarias and in Tarfaya, winds have
    diminished to near 30 kt. The gales in Agadir are expected to
    persist until 13/0300 UTC before diminishing below gale force,
    according to the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on their
    website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-
    marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 19N southward
    is moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
    occurring from 03N to 15N between 34W and 41W. This convection is
    being enhanced by upper-level divergence produced by a vigorous
    upper-level trough west of the wave. The wave has a well-defined
    surface trough and is the combination of a true African easterly
    wave and the upper-level trough.

    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 62W from
    20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Drier air seen in the total
    precipitable water imagery is noted in the waves environment,
    limiting convection at this time. The wave is primarily observed
    from the GFS-based trough diagnostics, with little surface
    component noted.

    A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along
    78/79W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Drier air is
    present near the wave, limiting convection. The wave is
    identifiable primarily from the 700 mb trough diagnostics.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
    07N19W. The ITCZ continues from there to 06N41W. In addition to
    the convection related to the tropical wave described above,
    scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring
    from 03N to 08N between 25W and 34W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
    currently in effect.

    A surface trough over the NW Caribbean is inducing scattered
    moderate showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel.

    The strong cold front will continue to race SE, clearing the
    basin early Wed. Gale force winds and high seas will linger over
    the Bay of Campeche and offshore Veracruz through early Wed.
    Another cold front will move into the Gulf Thu, followed by strong
    winds and high seas, possibly reaching gale force offshore of
    Veracruz Fri. That front will clear the basin Fri night with
    winds and seas diminishing during the weekend. Yet another cold
    front may move into the western Gulf late Sun.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    A surface trough extends from Jamaica to Cancun. Scattered
    moderate showers and tstorms are seen in the NW Caribbean, mainly
    north of 20N and west of 81.5W. Dry air and subsidence cover most
    of the remainder of the basin. Trades are moderate in the eastern
    and central Caribbean, and gentle in the western basin.

    A cold front will stall across the Yucatan Channel Wed afternoon
    and evening with hazardous winds and seas near the Channel. A
    stronger cold front will move SE of the Yucatan Channel Fri night,
    stalling from eastern Cuba to offshore of Nicaragua Sun.
    Otherwise, a weak pres gradient across the basin will lead to
    generally moderate tradewinds over most of the basin.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings
    currently in effect and tropical wave moving across the basin.

    A stationary front over the west-central Atlantic extends from a
    1017 mb low near 33N60W southwestward to 26N65W to 26N71W.
    Scattered moderate convection is occurring well E of the front
    from 23N to 31N between 55W and 61W. Winds in association with
    the front are only gentle to moderate. Surface ridging prevails
    across the reminder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high
    centered near 36N34W.

    The cold front from 32N79W to Jacksonville to 24N90W will reach
    from SE of Bermuda across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida
    on Wednesday before stalling. Gale force winds will follow this
    cold front off the NE coast of Florida tonight, and shift eastward
    across the northern waters W of 72W through Wed morning. Strong
    to near gale force winds and high seas will prevail NW of the
    boundary through Thu. As the front dissipates late week, winds and
    seas will also diminish. Low pres is expected to develop along
    the old frontal remnants off the NE Florida and Georgia coasts Fri
    and drift NE, with potential for gales by Sat. This low will drag
    another cold front across the basin W of 70W through the remainder
    of the upcoming weekend.

    $$
    Hagen