NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 231723
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    123 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1700 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from Hispaniola
    southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 64W and 78W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
    near 14N17W, curving to 11N18W and 11N20W. The ITCZ continues
    from 11N20W to 10N40W, to 08N50W, and to 09N60W. Scattered
    moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the coasts of
    Guyana and Venezuela to 11N between 59W and 61W. Widely scattered
    moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 20N
    between 20W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
    rainshowers are to the east of the line from 10N18W to 05N20W, to
    the Equator along 11W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere
    from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean,
    through the Straits of Florida, to 27N90W. The front becomes warm
    from 27N90W, and it curves northwestward to a 1014 mb low
    pressure center that is near 28N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf
    of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1014 mb low
    pressure center, to 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of
    Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated
    moderate rainshowers, are to the northwest and north of the line
    that runs from NW Cuba, to 24N90W, to 22N92W, to the coast of
    Mexico along 92W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
    Peninsula.

    The 1014 mb low pressure center will lift N toward the coast of
    Texas through Wednesday night, then ENE across the N central Gulf
    waters through Thursday night, moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico
    into north Florida by Friday. The developing low pressure center
    will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, westward along
    09N/10N, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
    Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers
    are from 11N southward between 76W and 82W, in the SW corner of
    the area.

    An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the Atlantic
    Ocean 11N-to-22N between 44W and 53W area of cyclonic wind flow,
    into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the
    Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic
    circulation center.

    24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that
    ended at 23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
    AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.91 in St.
    Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.72 in San Juan in Puerto Rico,
    0.68 in Curacao, 0.49 in Trinidad, 0.46 in Nassau in the Bahamas,
    0.12 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Guadeloupe.

    Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean
    Sea during the next several days, with the exception of light to
    gentle winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. The winds are expected to
    become fresh across the south central Caribbean Sea, by Saturday
    night. A tropical wave, extending from the Dominican Republic to
    eastern Venezuela, will become a trough today, then finally
    weaken and dissipate by Thursday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A stationary front passes through 32N56W to 24N70W, through the
    Straits of Florida, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.
    Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from
    23N northward between 50W and 67W. Other rainshowers are possible
    elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward.

    A surface trough is along 21N52W 12N53W. Upper level cyclonic wind
    flow covers the area from 11N to 22N between 44W and 53W. An upper
    level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the 11N-to-22N area of
    cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW
    corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level
    cyclonic circulation center.

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
    northward between Africa and 40W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is
    near 34N25W.

    Expect fresh to strong winds, and seas as high as 10 feet, in the
    wake of the current stationary front, to the east of the Bahamas.
    The front will weaken tonight and on Wednesday, and allow the wind
    speeds and the sea heights to decrease. The surface pressure
    gradient, between high pressure in the NE U.S.A. and low pressure
    tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida, will
    cause the winds and seas to the east of NE Florida to increase on
    Thursday and Friday.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT

Save350

Full Name*
Please type your full name.

E-mail*
Invalid email address.

Phone Number*
Invalid Input

Not to be combined with any other offer.