NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 141135
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    634 AM EST Fri Dec 14 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning...

    As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the SE Louisiana coast
    near 29N90W to 27N90W to 21N94W to the coast of Mexico near
    20.5N97W, and inland into Mexico. Gale force winds to 40 kt are
    occurring west of the front over the northwest and west-central
    Gulf of Mexico, and this was confirmed by an ASCAT pass from 0300
    UTC. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan
    Channel tonight, and move SE of the basin on Sat. The gale force
    winds will continue through this afternoon west of the cold
    front, spreading southward through the west-central Gulf. Winds
    are forecast to be below gale force by this evening. Seas of 12
    to 16 ft are expected to affect waters today from 22N-28N between
    90W-97W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
    headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

    ...Possible Gale off the coast of Morocco...

    Strong to near gale force winds with localized winds to gale
    force are expected today within 120 nm of the coast of Morocco
    between 30N-32N in Agadir, according to the latest forecast from
    Meteo France. These winds are being caused by a strong pressure
    gradient between a strong low over the western Mediterranean Sea
    and a 1030 mb high pressure to the west over the Atlantic near
    32N18W. Winds will diminish by early Sat.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to
    08N15W to 03N22W to 00N34W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W.
    Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N-09N between the W
    coast of Africa and 21W. Scattered showers are seen from 07N
    southward between 40W and the coast of South America.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front and associated gale force winds in the west-central
    Gulf are described above in the Special Features section. A
    strong, deep-layered low pressure system is located over east
    Texas. CIRA Layered Precipitable Water imagery indicates that
    southerly flow east of the low is drawing a large amount of moist
    air northward from the western Caribbean into the NE Gulf of
    Mexico. Ahead of the cold front, over the northeastern Gulf of
    Mexico, numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
    from 25N-30N between 82W-89W, including over the northern Florida
    Peninsula and eastern Florida Panhandle. The convection is being
    enhanced by strong upper-level divergence over the NE Gulf.
    Elsewhere N of 24N and E of 90W, scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are seen. A few showers are also over the western
    Gulf behind the front.

    Widespread heavy shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to
    continue today in the NE Gulf ahead of the front. Strong wind
    gusts and locally enhanced seas are expected with the stronger
    thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish this weekend.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Most of the Caribbean is relatively quiet with no significant
    features or convection at this time. However, the monsoon trough
    in the east Pacific, which is just south of Panama, is producing
    isolated thunderstorms in the extreme SW Caribbean south of 10N
    between 75W-81W. Elsewhere, some light trade wind showers are
    seen in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and Trinidad.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the central
    Caribbean through the weekend, with highest winds near the coast
    of Colombia at night. A cold front will move through the Yucatan
    Channel later today, then stall and dissipate over the NW
    Caribbean this weekend. Strong north winds are forecast west of
    the front across the Gulf of Honduras late tonight and Sat. Large
    N swell will reach the Leewards on Sat, and spread south through
    the Atlantic passages during the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Scattered moderate convection is over the Atlantic east of Georgia
    and northern Florida north of 29N and west of 79W. This activity
    is from the same weather system that is producing widespread
    strong thunderstorms over the NE Gulf of Mexico and northern
    Florida. Elsewhere N of 28N and W of 78W, scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms are present. Expect strong thunderstorms
    to become widespread in this area later today.

    A cold front passes through 32N40W to 28N46W to 25N59W then
    transitions to a stationary front at that point to 24N63W, then
    transitions to a warm front at that point to 24N70W to 25N75W.
    Isolated showers are possible along the front. Farther to the
    southeast, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N43W to 17N47W.
    Broken clouds and isolated showers accompany the trough.

    The frontal boundary along 24N east of the Bahamas will drift
    northward today and slowly dissipate. Strong to near gale force
    southerly return flow will develop north of the Bahamas today
    ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep east across the
    northern waters during the weekend, reaching from Bermuda to
    northwest Cuba Sun night and from 31N71W to central Cuba on Mon.
    The front will then stall across the tropical waters north of the
    Antilles on Tue.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen

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