NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 251158

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    758 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.


    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near the Sierra
    Leone/Liberia border and continues to 03N16W. The ITCZ extends
    from 03N16W to 01N30W to the Equator at 50W. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of ITCZ
    axis between 20N-26N. Scattered moderate convection is observed
    from the Equator to 04.5N between 32W and 38W, and from 02N-05N
    between 40W-45W.



    A weak cold front extends from the Florida Keys southwest to
    23N88W, where it becomes stationary to the eastern Bay of
    Campeche and to Mexico near 18N94W as of 06Z. Scattered showers
    and tstms are noted ahead of the cold front. Gentle to moderate
    northerly winds are noted behind the front over the eastern half
    of the Gulf. A 1018 mb high pressure, located over the NW gulf
    follows the front. It is forecast to move to along NW Cuba and
    the Yucatan Basin this morning, and become diffuse tonight.
    Another weak cold front will reach the Texas coast tonight, and
    move across the northwest and north-central waters Thu and Thu
    night, then over the eastern gulf late Thu night through Fri night
    as it slows down. This front will then exit the southeast gulf on
    Sat followed by weak high pres that will become centered over the
    northwest gulf. The high pres will slide eastward to the far
    north-central gulf by Sun night.


    A cold front extending across the Florida Keys and the SE Gulf of
    Mexico will move across western Cuba today increasing the likelihood
    of showers and tstms. Currently, scattered showers and tstms are
    noted in association with the frontal boundary. The front is
    forecast to become diffuse tonight.

    Latest satellite derived winds and seas and an overnight ASCAT
    pass reveal moderate to fresh trades over the south-central
    Caribbean, with the exception of fresh to strong trades within 90
    nm of the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades are evident
    elsewhere across the Caribbean as well as across the tropical N
    Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south-
    central Caribbean, 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean, and 3-5 ft
    over the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Seas in the 5-6 ft
    range prevail across the tropical N Atlantic waters. The gentle to
    moderate trades will pulse to fresh to strong mainly over the
    south-central Caribbean during the overnight hours through the
    rest of the week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades will
    continue through the period. Shallow moisture embedded in the
    trade wind flow will move across the Lesser Antilles producing
    isolated to scattered passing showers.


    A cold front extends from 31N76W southwest to SE Florida and the
    Florida Keys as of 06Z. Latest satellite derived winds and buoys
    indicate fresh to strong SE to S winds to the east of the front
    north of 27N between 72W and 7tW. Latest altimeter data shows
    seas in the range of 8-10 ft associated with these winds.
    Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with frequent lightning, are
    occurring ahead of the front, particularly over the NW Bahamas,
    and north of 27N and W of 70W. The cold front will begin to slow
    down as it reaches from near 31N76W to to the Straits of Florida
    by early this afternoon, from near 31N75W to NW Cuba tonight then
    stall into Thu and dissipate. The strong SE to S winds will shift
    northeast of the forecast waters tonight.

    A second weak cold front will move over the northwest waters Fri
    night. This front will reach from near 31N72W to the Straits of
    Florida Sat night, and from near 31N66W to 25N72W to west-central
    Cuba by Sun night. Weak high pressure will build across the area
    behind the front, with generally gentle to moderate west to northwest
    flow expected in the wake of this front.

    A stationary front enters the forecast area near 31N48W and continues
    SW to near 26N62W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are blowing behind
    the front based on scatterometer data. The remainder of the Atantic
    Ocean is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure located
    just SW of the Azores near 36N26W.

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