NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 061024
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    624 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 23.8N 90.2W at
    06/0900 UTC. Cristobal is morning N, or 350 degrees, at 12 knots.
    Cristobal is about 350 nm/600 km south of the mouth of the
    Mississippi River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997
    mb. The maximum sustained winds are 40 knots with gusts to 50
    knots. A broad band of strong thunderstorms is located within 150
    nm N of the center, as well as extending N to S along 87W from the
    north central Gulf, along the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,
    and south along the coast of Belize. Across all of the NE Gulf and
    north central Gulf to the E of 91W, scattered moderate to isolated
    strong convection exists. Scattered moderate convection is also
    ongoing across the NE Gulf and FL peninsula.

    Cristobal should continue moving northward at a similar pace it is
    remains between a western Atlantic ridge and western Gulf trough.
    This will bring Cristobal over the central Gulf today and
    approach the northern Gulf coast Sunday while slowly
    strengthening. Once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday, weakening
    will begin.

    Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring over parts
    of Mexico and Central America in association with Cristobal. The
    storm is likely to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
    inches in Quintana Roo and Yucatan, causing storm totals to
    approach 25 inches. It is possible that this rainfall may cause
    widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please
    read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or
    national meteorological service, for more details.

    Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts of up to
    12 inches are forecast across portions of the eastern and central
    Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley through early next week.
    Flash flooding as well as flooding on streams and rivers may
    result.

    There is a danger of life threatening storm surge from the Mouth
    of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS, where a Storm Surge
    Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm surge is also
    possible from Morgan City, LA, to the mouth of the Mississippi
    River and from Indian Pass to Arepika, FL, where Storm Surge
    Watches are in effect. Residents in these locations should follow
    advice given by local emergency officials.

    Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the
    northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western
    Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a
    Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds
    will arrive well in advance of and extend well to the east of
    Cristobals center.

    Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
    Hurricane Center at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the latest
    Cristobal NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
    www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

    ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO...

    A Central American Gyre remains in southern Mexico and northern
    Central America. The broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre
    encompasses the discussion waters from 10N northward from 100W
    eastward. The gyre is characterized by a northward displacement
    of the monsoon trough in Central America, and associated deep
    convective precipitation usually is found to the south of the
    trough.

    Expect additional heavy rainfall in parts of southeastern Mexico
    and northern Central America through tonight. The heaviest
    additional rainfall is expected in the southeastern Mexican
    provinces of Chiapas, Yucatan, and Quintana Roo, and in parts of
    Guatemala and Belize. It is possible that the rainfall may cause
    widespread life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Please
    read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or
    national meteorological service, for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 16N southward,
    moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists ahead
    of this wave to about 42W, mainly S of 09N.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 18N southward,
    moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection exists from
    08N to 12N between 50W and 55W in association with this wave.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, from 18N southward,
    moving west 10 to 15 knots. No significant deep convective
    precipitation is apparent with this tropical wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
    Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N17W, and to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues
    from 04N23W, to 04N32W. The ITCZ also is along 02N/03N between 36W
    and 46W. Precipitation: Numerous moderate to scattered strong
    convection is from 05N to 09N between 10W and 15W and from 00N to
    05N between 20W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection exists
    elsewhere from 0N to 10N between 15W and 55W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
    Tropical Storm Cristobal.

    Tropical Storm Cristobal will move north through the central Gulf
    through late Sunday, then move ashore in Louisiana. Thereafter,
    it will weaken and move away from the area. Once Cristobal moves
    inland, wind and seas will gradually subside. Moderate to fresh
    southerly flow will be present across most of the north- central
    Gulf waters through late Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
    heavy rainfall event that is occurring in Central America.

    A part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near
    10N74W, into the SW Caribbean Sea, across Nicaragua from SE to NW,
    into southern Honduras. Precipitation: Scattered moderate
    convection exists within 120 nm of the Panama and Costa Rica
    coast.

    Elsewhere in the Caribbean, high pressure is keeping mainly dry
    conditions in place, with some scattered tradewind showers mainly
    E of 70W.

    The Central American Gyre will persist over northern Central
    America and southern Mexico for several days, producing widespread
    showers and thunderstorms in far NW Caribbean through the
    weekend. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds and seas of 10 to
    15 ft in the NW Caribbean will gradually diminish into tonight.
    Fresh to strong winds will prevail over the south central
    Caribbean through tonight. Otherwise, a pair of tropical waves
    will cross mainly the southern Caribbean through early next week,
    bringing a few additional showers and thunderstorms.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the eastern Atlantic Ocean
    from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A surface trough extends
    from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 33N20W, through
    30N19W, to 24N23W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
    20N northward from 33W eastward.

    Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW
    Caribbean and Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support
    scattered showers and thunderstorms near Florida and to the north
    of the Bahamas through the weekend. Early next week, a weak cold
    front will approach northern waters before stalling. Otherwise,
    high pressure will support fresh trade winds, highest to the
    north of Hispaniola this weekend.

    $$
    KONARIK