NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 231038
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    638 AM EDT Thu May 23 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1020 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33/34W from 14N
    southward, moving west around 15 kt. TPW imagery nicely indicates
    the presence of the wave. The wave is enhancing scattered
    moderate convection along the ITCZ from 03N-07N between 30W-40W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W to
    05N18W to 04N19W. The ITCZ is from 04N19W to 03N31W, then
    continues west of a tropical wave from 03N36W to 02N44W to
    00N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
    section, numerous moderate scattered strong convection prevails
    from 01N-06N between 20W-28W. Scattered moderate convection is
    from 01N-07N between 06W-19W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin with fair
    weather, with a 1020 mb high over the Florida Panhandle.
    Scatterometer data from Wednesday evening shows strong SE winds
    covering the western Gulf and the south-central Gulf. Winds are
    lighter in the NE Gulf.

    High pressure extending into the eastern Gulf will maintain fresh
    to strong SE winds across the western Gulf through Fri. Winds
    will diminish and become more easterly across most of the basin
    this weekend. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain
    hazy skies in the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche the next few
    days.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The monsoon trough passes through portions of northern Colombia,
    Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate
    convection prevails over southern Honduras, eastern El Salvador,
    western Nicaragua, and extreme northwestern Costa Rica. Over the
    western Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is seen from
    12N-16N between 78W-83W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
    convection is also over northern Colombia and NW Venezuela,
    including Caribbean waters south of 10N between 75W-79W.
    Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms
    covers portions of the northern Caribbean from Hispaniola to the
    south coast of Cuba. The ASCAT pass from Wednesday evening shows
    strong E winds in the Gulf of Honduras.

    Heavy rain is expected to continue today through Friday across
    southern Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica,
    enhanced by an area of low pressure along the west coast of
    Nicaragua, mentioned in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook for the
    eastern North Pacific. These rains could cause flash flooding and
    mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. In addition, active
    weather is likely to continue across the SW Caribbean through the
    weekend. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh
    trade winds across most of the south central Caribbean and the
    Gulf of Honduras through the weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A southward moving cold front enters the discussion area near
    32N54W and extends W to 27N72W to 28N77W, dissipating to 31N81W.
    A surface trough is from 29N60W to 20N70W. An upper-level low is
    near 24N68W. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 20N-26N
    between 62W-71W. The remainder of the basin to the east of the
    front and trough is covered by a high pressure ridge.

    A cold front will sink southward across the northern waters
    through Fri, then stall and dissipate along 25N Fri night through
    Sun. High pressure north of the front will persist this weekend.
    A broad inverted trough will persist N of Hispaniola through Fri.
    NE winds near 30 kt will continue through Friday in the far E
    Atlantic near the coast of Morocco in the marine zone Agadir.

    For additional information please
    visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen

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