NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 061006
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    606 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0930 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to the coast of
    Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
    is noted within 180 nm of the ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front is analyzed from the SW Gulf near 21N96W to
    26N91W across the eastern Gulf to southern Florida. Overnight
    scatterometer data and recent buoy observations show moderate to
    fresh easterly winds north of the front over the northern Gulf,
    generally between 26N and 28N. Seas are running 4-6 ft in this
    area based on recent buoy reports. Elsewhere, gentle winds
    prevail across much of the basin, except for moderate to locally
    fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula in association with a
    locally influenced trough.

    A stationary front extending from south Florida westward across
    the central Gulf along 25N-26N will linger today, then weaken and
    lift northward tonight. A western Atlantic high pressure ridge
    will build across the Gulf Tue and persist through mid-week. A
    cold front is expected to drop southward and cross the northern
    Gulf late Thu night and Fri, then stall and weaken over the
    northern or central waters Fri night. Smoke from agricultural
    fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the SW Gulf
    and Bay of Campeche.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A weak high pressure ridge over the SW N Atlantic is producing a
    pressure gradient that supports fresh to strong winds near the
    coast of Venezuela and Colombia this morning. Seas likely peak
    around 8-10 ft offshore of Barranquilla within the strongest
    winds. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras and over the
    southern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades prevail
    across the rest of the basin. Dry air associated with a mid-level
    ridge over the NW Caribbean continues to limit any convective
    activity over the basin.

    High pressure will build over the SW N Atlantic waters through
    mid-week, which will support fresh to strong winds along the coast
    of Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh winds will pulse
    each night over the Gulf of Honduras. A weakening stationary
    front or trough will linger in the vicinity of the Leeward Islands
    into Tue. Long-period northerly swell will continue affecting the
    waters east of the Leeward Islands through Tue, then subside by
    mid-week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Overnight scatterometer data showed fresh easterly winds to the
    north of a stationary front extending across southern Florida to
    the NW Bahamas. Farther east, a weakening stationary front is
    analyzed over the central Atlantic from 30N35W to the NE coast of
    Puerto Rico. GOES-16 satellite imagery indicates scattered moderate
    convection is occurring near the front north of 24N. Several
    overnight altimeter passes indicate large northerly swell persists
    south of complex low pressure over the north-central Atlantic.
    Strong winds and seas 12 ft or greater are generally found north
    of 26N between 45W and 55W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates
    the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 1020 mb high pressure near
    26N25W.

    A nearly stationary front extending across south Florida to the
    NW Bahamas will weaken tonight into early Tue. Northerly swell
    generated by a complex low pressure system over the central
    Atlantic will produce large seas across the offshore forecast
    waters through tonight. Seas will subside Tue through mid-week as
    high pressure passes SE across the northern offshore waters. A
    high pressure ridge will persist over the southern offshore waters
    through Fri. A cold front is expected to move off the SE U.S.
    coast and across the northern waters Thu night through Fri night.

    $$
    B Reinhart