NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 300605
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Wed Sep 30 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0540 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...
    A strong cold front is passing through Florida, from just to the
    south of the Tampa metropolitan area, to the NW corner of the
    Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
    Mexico. Gale-force winds cover the waters that are from 19N to
    21N between 93W and 97W. Precipitation: scattered strong is
    within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 95W. Widely
    scattered moderate is inland, within 200 nm to the SE of the
    cold front from 15N to 20N.
    Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
    Gale-force winds also cover parts of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
    the southern side of Mexico.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 16N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
    within 445 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 150
    nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 14N.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/50W, from 16N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
    isolated strong is within 280 nm to the east of the tropical
    wave, from 09N to 14N.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/65W, from 20N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 445
    nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 23N southward.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
    within 270 nm to the WNW of the tropical wave from 17N to 22N.
    Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 400 nm
    to the west of the tropical wave.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
    Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W, 07N30W, and 06N38W. The
    ITCZ continues from 06N38W, to 10N54W, and to 11N61W.
    Precipitation: some of the precipitation that is near the
    monsoon trough and the ITCZ also is related to and accompanying
    the tropical waves. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
    isolated to locally strong, generally, is from 17N southward
    from 55W eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A strong cold front is passing through Florida, from just to the
    south of the Tampa metropolitan area, to the NW corner of the
    Yucatan Peninsula, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
    Mexico. Gale-force winds cover the waters that are from 19N to
    21N between 93W and 97W. Precipitation: scattered strong is
    within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between 93W and 95W. Widely
    scattered moderate is inland, within 200 nm to the SE of the
    cold front from 15N to 20N.
    Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
    Gale-force winds also cover parts of the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
    the southern side of Mexico.

    The current strong cold front will continue to support
    gale-force winds in the SW basin, behind the front through
    tonight. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are expected
    elsewhere behind the front. The front will move E of the basin
    by Wednesday evening. A second front will enter the northern
    Gulf early on Friday, and it will reach the SW Gulf by Friday
    evening. Strong high pressure building behind this front will
    support fresh northeast winds in most of the SE Gulf by the end
    of the week. It is possible that these winds may reach strong
    speeds on Saturday, along with building seas.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/65W, from 20N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 445
    nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 23N southward.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 20N
    southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
    Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
    within 270 nm to the WNW of the tropical wave from 17N to 22N.
    Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 400 nm
    to the west of the tropical wave.

    The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
    Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
    Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
    in clusters covers parts of Colombia and Venezuela, Panama and
    Costa Rica, and the neighboring coastal waters, from 05N to 13N
    between 71W and 85W.

    Moderate to fresh trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea will
    increase to fresh to strong speeds overnight. Moderate to fresh
    winds will prevail elsewhere, except for gentle winds in the
    northwestern Caribbean Sea, through Thursday morning. A tropical
    wave, currently along 76W, will move into the Gulf of Honduras
    on Thursday evening, inducing fresh to strong winds and
    building seas. The chance for this feature to evolve into a
    tropical cyclone through the next 5 days is medium.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Precipitation: widely scattred to scattered moderate, and
    isolated to locally strong, covers the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N
    northward from 63W westward. This precipitation is to the east
    of the advancing cold front that is moving through the Gulf of
    Mexico right now.

    Moderate to fresh return flow, mainly to the NE of the Bahamas,
    will prevail in advance of a cold front that will enter the NW
    forecast waters tonight. The cold front will be extending from
    30N74W to 24N80W on Wednesday evening, before stalling and
    dissipating on Thursday. Fresh to
    strong winds are expected ahead of and behind the front, in the
    NW and north central forecast waters tonight. A tropical wave,
    that will move across Puerto Rico on Friday and Saturday, will
    support moderate to fresh winds in the SE forecast waters during
    the weekend.

    $$
    mt