NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 240532
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    132 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0515 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W from 03N-18N,
    moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance
    and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from
    05N-10N between 23W-30W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W from 03N-22N,
    moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
    05N-09N between 45W-50W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
    180 nm of the wave axis south of 13N.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W from 03N-19N,
    moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle
    of a strong outbreak of Saharan dust. No convection is present at
    this time.

    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W/71W from 05N-20N,
    moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over
    Hispaniola, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W from 04N-20N,
    moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180
    nm of the wave axis to include over Jamaica, Costa Rica, and
    Panama.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N16W
    to 09N21W to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 09N46W, then
    resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N49W to 08N55W. Aside from
    the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section
    above, scattered showers are within 300 nm south of the ITCZ
    between 34W-44W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to S Texas.
    Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front, mostly
    N of 26N. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the
    Yucatan Peninsula, and S Mexico. 15 kt northerly winds are N of
    the front. 5-10 kt variable winds are S of the front. Of note in
    the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SE
    Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. Another small upper level low is
    centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N94W.

    A weak cold front will move across the northern Gulf of Mexico
    through Wed, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevailing
    behind the front. The front will stall from the Florida Big Bend
    to S Texas on Wed night, then dissipate through Thu. Weak high
    pressure will build over the NE Gulf Fri. A surface trough will
    move off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, supporting fresh to
    occasionally strong winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Two tropical waves are over the basin. Refer to the section above
    for details.

    Scattered moderate convection prevails over the Windward Islands
    in advance of the next tropical wave. Scatterometer data depicts
    moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest winds over
    the south central Caribbean.

    High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong
    trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through Sat, pulsing to
    near gale force along the coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of
    Venezuela at night. Strong winds will develop south of Hispaniola
    beginning on Thu as high pressure strengthens. A tropical wave
    will cross the Windward Islands late Wed night and move over the
    eastern Caribbean on Thu, with fresh to strong winds east of the
    wave axis.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the section above for more information on the
    three tropical waves over the Atlantic.

    Patches of scattered moderate convection is over the W Atlantic W
    of 74W to include the Bahamas. A 1024 mb high is centered over the
    central Atlantic near 31N58W. A 1025 mb high is over the E
    Atlantic near 30N43W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
    level low is centered over the W Atlantic near 25N70W. Upper
    level diffluence NE of the center is producing isolated moderate
    convection from from 25N-30N between 64W-70W.

    Over the W Atlantic, high pressure along 28N/29N will shift
    southward Wed. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW
    waters Thu. The front will become stationary Thu night, then
    gradually weaken over the NW portion Fri and Sat.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa

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