NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 051732
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
    life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The
    center of Tropical Depression Eta, at 05/1500 UTC, is inland
    over Honduras near 15.1N 87.8W. Eta is moving toward the NW, or
    305 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
    1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35
    kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from Costa
    Rica to the Yucatan Peninsula and the western Caribbean waters
    mainly west of 77W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is
    expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this
    afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight.
    Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands
    and western or central Cuba this weekend.

    Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for
    more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening
    flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in
    areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and
    river flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala,
    Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 02N-
    16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
    noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 10N.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave wit axis along 58W, from 14N
    southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
    noted
    along the wave's axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
    near 16N17W to 13N22W. The ITCZ continues from 13N22W to 06N41W.
    Scattered showers prevail south of the boundaries between
    10W-25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high
    pressure centered over the west Atlantic. over the western
    Gulf, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends
    from 29N94W to 22N94W. To the southeast, a shearline is analyzed
    from 24N80W to 22N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted
    across most of the basin south of 27N, while gentle to moderate
    winds prevail elsewhere.

    Strong high pressure will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in
    the southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The
    wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico during the upcoming weekend. T.D. Eta will move inland to
    15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W
    Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat
    morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning.
    Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N
    80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending into the region from
    the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over
    the eastern half of the basin through Sun. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida Sun night and
    Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the section above for details on T.D Eta.

    Over the remainder of the basin, scatterometer data depicts
    gentle to moderate trades. A surface trough extends across west
    Hispaniola with scattered showers.

    Tropical Depression Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this
    evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening,
    strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning,
    20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will
    change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early
    Mon. The center of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of
    Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman
    Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
    waves moving across the basin.

    A shearline extends from 29N54W to 24N69W to 24N80W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted along the shearline mainly west
    of 60W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to
    24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N
    between 46W-52W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

    The center of the now T.D. Eta is expected to emerge over the
    Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and will re-intensify into a
    tropical cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
    winds are expected W of 70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun
    night and Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic
    Sat through Mon.

    The shearline will dissipate within the next 24 hours. A cold
    front will enter the central Atlantic enhancing seas.

    $$
    ERA