NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 251705
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    104 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1645 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Liberia
    near 07N11W to 01S20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to
    03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate with
    isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-06N between 04W-23W.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-02N between 29W-
    49W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
    surface high centered near the Florida Big Bend. This is producing
    gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the
    basin. Isolated showers are noted over the E Gulf from 25N-27N
    between 84W-87W due to a weak transient trough in the area that
    was not analyzed on the 1200 UTC surface map. Elsewhere, cloud
    cover is increasing over the N Gulf ahead of a surface trough and
    cold front located well inland from the N Gulf Coast over the
    southern United States. Scattered moderate showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are along this trough. Some of these showers could
    reach the northern Gulf waters late today ahead of the cold front.
    The cold front will move into the northern Gulf late today
    through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the
    front over the northeast Gulf Wed as the front sweeps southward
    and exits the Gulf late Wed. Expect moderate to fresh southerly
    return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week as high pressure
    builds over the Carolinas in the wake of the front.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A surface trough is analyzed from the Central Bahamas to E Cuba
    near 21N77W to 17N80W. Isolated showers are noted over the
    northern Caribbean north of 18N from Hispaniola to central Cuba.
    Isolated showers are also north of 17N near the Mona Passage and
    western Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh
    trades over much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong
    winds south of 13N near the coast of Colombia.

    High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
    trade winds off Colombia into mid week. The winds will diminish
    mid to late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold
    front. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Wed,
    then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras
    through the latter part of the week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 32N42W to 28N51W to 27N58W, and
    continues as a dissipating stationary front to 26N65W to 25N71W. A
    surface trough extends from 25N73W through the central Bahamas to
    E Cuba near 21N77W to 17N80W. Scattered showers and isolated
    thunderstorms are seen from 22N-27N between 65W-79W, including the
    Bahamas and waters east of the Bahamas. Isolated showers are also
    seen near the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
    of the front between 42W-65W. Scatterometer data shows fresh NE
    winds within 150 nm north of the front between 50W-71W. Over the
    far NE Atlantic, an occluded 1008 mb low is near 28N17W, with a
    cold front extending from 28N16W to 23N17W to 20N21W, dissipating
    to 19N33W. Additional lows and troughs are located east of this
    system to Morocco. Scattered moderate convection covers the NE
    Atlantic north of 25N and east of 20W to portions of Morocco.
    Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the cold front south of 25N.

    The stationary front from 26N65W to 25N71W will drift northward
    to along 27N this afternoon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold
    front will move off the NE Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low
    pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of
    the NW Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by
    strong to gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure
    will drift slowly eastward through late week.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Hagen

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