NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 061714
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    114 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 18N southward,
    moving W 15 knots. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates the wave
    environment north of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is
    along and south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 10N between
    27W and 36W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 18N southward,
    moving westward 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is from
    06.5N to 11.5N between 43W and 52W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 17N southward,
    moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is
    from 13N to 16.5N between 54W and 64W.

    A tropical wave is over Central America along 89W, from 19N
    southward, moving westward 15 knots. Scattered moderate
    convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near
    15N16W to 10N30W to 10N40W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from
    07N47W to 08N55W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
    tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is within
    120 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
    with the cyclonic center over the east central Gulf. This is
    producing generally stable atmospheric conditions across much of
    the Gulf, except for scattered moderate convection across the NE
    Gulf north of 25.5N extending into the Big Bend region. A few
    clusters of moderate convection are seen offshore of the SE
    Louisiana coast and just south of Mobile Bay, to the south of a
    stalled frontal boundary over coastal sections from south
    Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. A cluster of moderate
    convection lingers across the central Bay of Campeche south of
    20N.

    Light to gentle variable wind will dominate the Gulf waters
    through Mon night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to
    fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of
    the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula waters
    associated with a surface trough.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
    S of 12N mostly due to the eastern extent of the E Pacific
    monsoon trough. Fresh to strong tradewinds dominate the central
    Caribbean south of 17N, strongest along the coast of Colombia
    and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 7-10 ft are found across
    this area. Elsewhere moderate trades prevail across the basin.

    The pressure gradient between high pressure over the SW N
    Atlantic and the eastward extension of the NE Pacific monsoon
    trough to Colombia will support fresh to strong tradewinds across
    the central basin through Fri. Strong trades will increase and
    expand across the northern central portions over the weekend with
    the passage of a pair of tropical waves. Near gale-force winds are
    expected along the Colombia coastal waters and the Gulf of
    Venezuela Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds
    are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the E Caribbean
    through Mon night, except for fresh to strong in the Gulf of
    Honduras Fri and Sat nights.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1016 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 28N71W.
    Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low.
    A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N45W
    producing fair weather. Moderate to locally fresh tradewinds
    prevail across the Tropical Atlantic south of 20N were seas
    are 5-7 ft.

    Over the W Atlantic, a weak low will linger NE of the Bahamas
    through Sun night before dissipating. Elsewhere high pressure on
    either side of the trough will support light to gentle variable
    winds, except south of 23N, where moderate to fresh easterly
    winds will dominate the waters from the Great Bahama Bank to the
    waters north of Hispaniola.

    $$
    Formosa