NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 231200
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1130 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient
    continues between a strong high pressure system near Bermuda and
    lower pressures over northern portions of South America. This
    pattern is supporting winds of minimal gale-force near the coast
    of Colombia through this afternoon. Wave heights within the area
    of gale- force winds will range from 11 to 14 feet. Please read
    the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

    Gale force winds are also occurring over the eastern Atlantic
    Ocean associated with a 998 mb low pressure system near 27N 25W.
    This low is expected to approach the Canary Islands during the
    next 24 hours. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas
    Forecast listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-
    METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 8N13W and
    continues to 1N28W, where the ITCZ begins. The ITCZ extends
    southwestward and crosses the Equator near 31W. Scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection is from 1N to 5N between 12W and
    20W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front is along the Texas Gulf coast, from the upper
    Texas coast, into the coastal waters of the Deep South of Texas,
    to the coast of NE Mexico near 24N97W. The stationary front
    continues to the Big Bend of Texas, and the Far West of Texas.
    Scattered showers are possible, in areas of scattered- to- broken
    low level clouds, from 93W eastward, and to the west of the line
    from 30N92W in Louisiana, to 22N97W along the coast of Mexico.

    The current stationary front, that is to the north of 24N between
    96W and 97W, will weaken overnight, and then dissipate on Friday.
    A weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf late on Saturday
    night, then stall and weaken from the FL panhandle to NE Mexico
    from Sunday through Monday night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
    Gale Warning for the waters that are near the coast of Colombia.

    Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 16N to
    19N between 80W and 82W, about 200 nm to the W of Jamaica. Other
    rainshowers are possible, in areas of broken-to-overcast low
    level clouds, across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals have
    been generally low...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE
    AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC: 0.45 in
    Curacao, and 0.31 in Guadeloupe.

    The winds will pulse to minimal gale-force near the coast of
    Colombia tonight. Strong surface high pressure that is to the
    N of the area will support fresh-to-strong trade winds across
    the forecast waters that are to the east of 80W through Friday
    night. The area of strong high pressure will weaken from Saturday
    through Monday night, leading to diminishing winds and seas.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N
    northward between Africa and 35W. The aforementioned low pressure
    system in the SPECIAL FEATURES section is producing numerous
    showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and east of 26W. Otherwise,
    generally quiet conditions exist across the remainder of the
    region supported by strong surface high pressure centered just
    west of Bermuda. This high is forecast to weaken and shift
    southward this weekend while a cold front pushes off the SE coast
    of the U.S. on Monday, and then becomes stationary along 28N on
    Tuesday.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    MT/JPC

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