NOAA Forecast

National Weather Service

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  1. 000
    AXNT20 KNHC 231922 AAA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    322 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    ...Updated to include Special Feature...

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that will reach the
    Texas coast Friday morning is expected to bring gale force winds
    to the far western Gulf of Mexico beginning Friday morning,
    south of 26N. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz
    into Saturday. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO
    headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
    details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is noticeable near the coast of Africa along 13W
    from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate
    to strong convection is from 03N-13N to 09W-19W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 19N southward,
    moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from
    04N-10N between 33W-38W.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 17N southward,
    moving W at 10-15 knots. Precipitable water values near the wave
    are very low limiting convection along the wave axis.

    A Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W from 20N southward, moving
    W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave
    axis.

    A tropical wave is along 93W from 06N-19N, moving W at 10-15 knots.
    Scattered moderate convection is over the W Caribbean, Central
    America, Yucatan Peninsula, and Bay of Campeche, from 10N-22N
    between 90W-94W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
    Bissau near 11N15W to 06N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point
    to 07W-33W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 04N38W to the
    coast of Brazil near 03N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in
    the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection
    from 04N-09N between 23W-33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1022 mb high is centered over Alabama near 33N87W producing
    fair weather across the northern portion of the Gulf coast. A
    cold front extends from 26N82W to the central Gulf of Mexico
    near 23N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Scattered
    moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche within 100 nm
    of the front S of 23N.

    The stationary front will weaken and dissipate by Thu night. The
    northern part of a tropical wave will enhance thunderstorm
    activity associated with the front in the Bay of Campeche today
    and tonight. The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Fri
    morning, then plunge southward over the western Gulf through Sat
    as unseasonably strong high pressure west of the front pushes into
    northern Mexico. Gale force NW to N winds are expected over the
    western Gulf behind the front Fri and Sat.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    For information in regards to the tropical waves, please see
    section above.

    10-15 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest
    winds over the Gulf of Honduras. An upper level low centered
    17N69W is enhancing an area of showers and thunderstorms in
    the region from 14-22N between 65W-76W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is also noted in Hispaniola and Puerto
    Rico. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the SW
    Caribbean S of 12N.

    Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
    through Sun night. Tropical waves are currently located over the
    Windward Islands and the Tropical Atlantic near 51W. Winds will be
    enhanced over the Caribbean near the tropical waves as they pass
    across the basin through the end of the week.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to 27N78W.
    Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. A 1017 mb
    high is over the W Atlantic near 28N74W. A 1013 mb low is
    centered over the central Atlantic near 28N51W. A stationary
    front extends S from the low to 23N58W. Isolated moderate
    convection is from 90 nm from the stationary front. A 1021 mb
    high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N20W.

    A front has stalled off the coast of Florida from 31N75W to
    27N80W. The front will weaken and dissipate by Thu night. High
    pressure over the western Atlc will maintain moderate to fresh E
    to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Long
    period NE swell will cause seas to build E of 70W beginning on
    Sun.

    $$
    Torres/Hagen